Today, we’re diving into a juicy topic that’s been floating Around lately: Will the stock market crash in the next one year? I stumbled across a comment Online that got my wheels turning, and I thought, “This is perfect for us to declutter the topic togeether.” Whether you’re new to investment or you’ve been watching your “Market linked retirement fund“Like a hawk, I promise to keep this simple.
The comment that started it all
A Self-Proclaimed Moderate, Said They don’t see the stock market crashing anytime song. Why? They think the current administration (We’re talking trump’s second go-rund as of March 2025)
Not because of some genius economic masterplan, but trust of behavior. Trump’s ego, they argue, won’t let the economy flop.
He’ll Tweak Policies, LIKE TOKE BIG, Loud Tariff Threats, Before They Tank Your Investments or Jack Up The Price of Your Groceries. Plus, they pointed out republicans love deregulation, which could keep companies humming along the initial jitters settle.
Intriguing, Right? Let’s dig in.
First Things First: What Makes The Stock Market Move?
Before we get into predictions, let’s level-set.
Imagine the stock market like a giant rollercoaster at an amusement park. Somemes it’s Climbing High, Other Times IT’s Dipping Low, and Every Once in a While, It Feels Like the Whole Thing Might Derail.
What Drives that that UPS and Downs? A less big factors we’ll take up here:
- The economy: Jobs, Spending, inflation, all that factors working togeether. If people are working and buying stuff, companies make money, and stocks tend to risk.
- Company Performance: Are Businesses Growing? Making Profits? Think of Walmart or Apple, If they’re doing well, it’s a good sign for the market.
- Government Policies: Taxes, regulations, trade deals. These can eather green the wheels or throw a wrench in the works.
- Human behavior: Yes, Fear can also send stocks plummeting (Think Panic-Selling), While Optimism Can Send Them Soaring.
Now, here’s the best thing, no one, not me, not your uncle who’s “really into stocks,” Not even the wall street pros, can predict the market with 100% certainty. It’s part science, part psychology, and a sprinkle of luck,
But we can look at patterns and vibes to make an educated guess,
So, let’s explore this “no crash” theory togeether.
The Ego Factor: A Real Thing or Just Hot Air?
The commenter’s big idea is that Trump’s ego will keep the market afloat.
Picture this, it’s 2018And my buddy dave is grinning ear-to-ear because his 401 (k) is up 20%He’s texting me, Trump Keeps Bragging About The Market – Maybe He’s ONTO SOMETHING. Fast-forward to 2020, Pre-CovidAnd Dave’s Still Doing Great, Thought He Admits Things WHENS WOLID Under Obama Too.
Point is, Trump did love touting these stock market highs last time. “Best 401 (K) S Ever,” He’D Say. And when the market Dipped? He’D point fingers anywhere but at Himself.
Here’s where it gets interesting.
Let’s say he slaps tarifs on imported good, it will hike-up prisles for your next tv or car. It will hurt the demand, right? If companies start hurting and your retirement account takes a hit, the same people (like dave) will grumble. The commenter thinks Trump will notes and Pivot. Maybe He’ll Say, “China Caved, I Won, Tarifs are off”, even if it’s just a face-saving move.
His ego, they argue, won’t let him risk a market multdown. It’s like when my kid builts a Lego Tower, He’ll Prop It Up with Extra Pieces Before It Falls, Just so he can say he nailed it.
Cold this work? Maybe. Presidents do’t control the market directly, it’s not a light switch, but they can influence it with policies. If he pulls back on harsh stuff when the heat’s on, it might keep things steady.
What do you think, does ego really have that much power?
Deregulation: A Business-friendly Boost?
Next Up, is deregulation.
Republicans do love slashing red tape, it’s like their version of spring cleaning.
Imagine you own a little bakery (bear with me, I’m craving donuts). Under Tight Rules, You’ve Got to File 10 Forms Just to Buy A New Oven. Deregulation comes along, and suddenly it’s two forms. You save time, money, and headaches, so you expand, hire a baker, sel more donuts, make more duty. Investors See that and Think, “Sweet, I’ll Buy Some of that Bakery’s Stock.”
Trump’s first term is a bunch of this, less rules for banks, energy companies, you name it.
Businesses cheered, and the market climbed. If that Happens Again, It Cold Keep Stocks Humming, Especially after this “Initial Downturn” (We’re in a Wobbly Spot Right Now, March 2025). Big Players like Walmart Might Stumble Short-Term, Say, If Tariffs Spike Costs, but long-term, fewer Ruleswals could mean More Growth. I’ve Got a Hunt this could play out, but it’s not a slam dunk.
What if deregulation goes too and we get another 2008-style message? Something to chew on.
Optimism with a side of caution
I’ve been investment since my 20s (yes, i’m that old), and i’ve seen markets ride out all kinds of storms. I started my career during the dot -com bed. My retirement fund survived the 2008-09 crash. Eventually in 2017, I Took Up My Hobby (as a financial blogger) As my career. Post that, my retirement corpus has even survived the 2020’s covid chaos.
So, here’s what i think, if I think i’ve seen some ups and down of the market:
- Short-term bumps: We’re in a Weird Spot Now, UncertainTy Always SPOOKS The Market. If tariffs or trade wars heat up, your portfolio might Dip. Don’t panic, think of it like a salary at your favorite store. I’ve boght stocks on the cheap during Dips and Watched Them Rebound. Eventually all Crisis Fades Away, WW-1, 1927 Great Depression, WW-2, Cold War, Oil Crisis, Asian Financial Crisis, Dot-Com-Comcha, 2008 Mortgage Crisis, 2015 Brexit, 2020 Covd, 2020 Covd, and NOT TRPIPIP War, even this will go away.
- Long-term hope: If Trump Avoids a Policy Train-WRIN-WRIN-Not (Not) and DERGULITION Kicks in, I could see stocks chugging along for the next few years. My Buddy Dave’s Retirement Fund Might Not “Tank”, and Neither Will Yours.
Markets don’t care about egos forever. If inflation spikes, Interest Rates Soar, or a Random Crisis Hits, All Bets are off. I’m optimistic, but I keep an emergency fund and some bonds just in case.
Conclusion
Let me leave you with this small story.
Back in 2016, My Friend’s Mom in Us, A Total Beginner, Put About $ 1,000 INTO A Stock Fund because “Trump Says The Market’s Gonna Be Huge.”
She Didn Bollywood Know A P/E Ratio, but She Rode That Wave Up 30% by 2019. She Sold, Bough A New Couch, And Styl Brags about it. Point is, someimes the vibe matters as much as the data. If the administration keeps the vibe positive, ego, deregulation, whatever, maybe we dodge a crash.
What’s your move?
So, where do you land? Are you buying this “no tank” theory, or do you see story clouds ahead?
If you’re new to this, here’s my advice, start small, maybe a low-cost index fund, and do’t sweat the daily dips.
Keep Learning, Keep Saving, and Let’s Ride This Rollercoaster Togeether. Drop your thoughts below, i’d love to hear what you’re seeing out there!
Have a happy investment,
(Tagstotranslate) Stock Market Predictions (T) Trump Economic Policies