Since the election time in the US, uncertainty in the stock market had increased, but the decisions of Trump have increased a lot more. Tahir Emperor, CEO of Invosco Mutual Fund, says that mutual fund companies have reduced the estimates of income growth and returns for a near period. Abhishek Kumar interacted with the emperor on these issues on telephone. Here are the major parts:
What will be the effect of Trump’s charges on Indian and global markets?
India was not expected to fees 26 percent, but many other countries in Asia such as China, Vietnam, Indonesia and Bangladesh have been charged even more. With this, India can get benefits in some special product categories like apparel, chemicals and footwear etc. in the moderate period. Some other areas, including medicine, are currently excluded from the scope of charges, so that the direct effect on India will not look much, but indirect effects can be seen more. These fees can show the most effects on vehicles, technology (indirect), chemicals etc. The impact will be limited, but the decision of Trump will have a profound impact on the global economy, which will destroy the entire supply system. India will also definitely be affected by this.
How do you assess the current market status? When is the hope of changing changes?
Earlier this year, we were expecting the possibility of continuing the market to continue till the first half and then the remaining period. But the decline in the market has been more than anticipated, especially in the large markets, the situation has become a bit worse. Talking about the domestic front, there are no signs of improvement. Measures to increase cash, reduction in interest rates and increase in expenditure will definitely help but it will take some quarters. With the second half of 2025, the problems related to the economic situation will start to be removed. Due to low Aadhaar, the increase in income in future will seem stronger and we may start seeing a round of improvements in income. There was an atmosphere of uncertainty about the US election globally. Now the situation is becoming more difficult. The talks on trade may weaken the US economic growth, while the improvement in India’s situation will begin to improve. China can intensify competition to increase the share of markets rapidly, that is, the profit for India can be limited.
Has there been any major changes in the fund portfolio due to changing the situation in the market?
Changes in our portfolio are not affected by the fluctuations occurring in the near period. Changes are made in the portfolio due to major and concrete reasons. It was a bit challenging to change the portfolio immediately in the rapid decline in the market. We are currently reviewing some parts of our portfolio as some areas and shares have given less than expected. At a large scale, we are giving a gesture estimates about income and are also determining the expectation of returns in the same corresponding. For example, the estimated rate of increase in income has been reduced from 15 percent to 10 percent. In the coming time, our view is quite strong, that is, he has given up expectation of much return and is focusing on the basic strength of shares instead of changing circumstances.
The evaluation has not reduced to negative?
Evaluation cannot be really called cheap but in various sections in the market they have become more attractive than before. In the next two years, if 12-13 percent of the compound growth rate is estimated, then large shares with income 18-18.5 times are looking less expensive. The middle shares are looking expensive with 26-27 times and small stocks with 22 times the income, but the decline in them has also come up. The fast -growing shares have suffered a strong injury, while the performance of companies expecting a low increase has been better. The evaluation should be seen in terms of the possibilities of growth.
Should investors increase investment in shares?
The current decline for investors has brought an opportunity. Those who will invest in now or the next few months may get strong profits at the end of 2025 and then after the market improvement. It is often seen that there is a big benefit on investment at the time of decline in the market. Investors should decide for investing in shares based on the ability to take risk.
First Published – April 3, 2025 | 11:17 pm IST