Recently, the tariff imposed by US President Donald Trump has led to a decline in the global market, but experts believe that the Nifty 50 index will not go below 20,000 only because of this. However, if corporate results of the March 2025 quarter (Q4-FY25) and the company guidance remain weak with expectation, the Nifty may touch the level of 20,000.
Support on 21,000, recovery possible with ups and downs
Nandish Shah, Deputy Vice President of HDFC Securities, believes that Nifty may get around 21,000 support and some recovery is possible from there. He says that most of the tariffs related to tariffs have already joined the market, so the Indian markets have performed better in the recent decline than the rest of the countries.
Not Trump, but global sentiment is a big reason
Shah said, “The decline at the moment is not due to the weakness of the Indian market, but is due to the global sentiment. But the way forward will depend on how the results of the companies come. If the result and guidance remains weak, the Nifty can fall to 20,000 – but it is not my base case.”
Tremendous bounce after decline
On Tuesday, the Nifty saw a gain of 300 points (1.4%) and the index reached 22,475. A day before this, there was a sharp decline of 742 points (3.24%) in the market on Monday.
Market is in downtrend for six months
Indian stock markets have been in decline for the last six months. The reason for this is – more valuations, weak results, frequent selling of foreign investors and now Trump’s tariff policy. In September 2024, the Nifty made an all-time high of 26,277, but by April 7 it has broken 17.3%. The Nifty has fallen by 2,100 points in the last 9 trading sessions and is now only 1,750 points above the psychological level of 20,000.
What next? Resistance at 22,800, support at 21,300
Ajit Mishra, a research head of Reliance Broking, believes that Nifty may get resistance between 22,500–22,800. If the Nifty is closed below 21,700, it can slip up to 21,300.
What does technical chart say?
Technical indicators such as RSI, Stokastic and MACD have given negative signals on the daily chart. This indicates that the market may remain weak in the near future. Monday’s fall has made 22,900 a new resistance.
Can the market fall by 19,700?
If seen on the medium term chart, the Nifty has reached its 100-week moving average (22,145). If this level breaks, the next support will be at 200-WMA i.e. around 19,700. On the month chart, the Nifty rests on the super trend support of 21,500. If this level also breaks, the Nifty can go to the 50-month moving average i.e. 19,500.
An old ‘gap’ is also being made the reason
In December 2023, Nifty left a ‘gap’ between 20,291 and 20,508. History is witness that the Nifty fills these ‘gaps’ over time. Therefore it is possible to go below 20,291.
First Published – April 8, 2025 | 5:05 pm IST
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